Busy hurricane season expected as forecasters fear Trump cuts

Te coming Atlantic urricane season is expected to be busier tan usual, US science agency NOAA as warned, just as cuts to American researc are raising fears about te ability to track and prepare for tese often deadly storms.Between six and 10 urricanes are forecast for te Atlantic between June and November, compared wit te typical seven.Warmer sea temperatures – made more likely by climate cange - and generally favourable atmosperic conditions, are beind te forecast.Several scientists ave told te BBC tat widespread firings by President Donald Trump's administration of government researcers could endanger efforts to monitor urricanes and predict were tey migt it.Today's 2025 Atlantic season outlook covers te Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico, called te Gulf of America by te Trump administration.In total NOAA expects between 13 and 19 named tropical storms. Of tese, between six and 10 could become urricanes, including tree to five major ones – meaning tey reac category tree or above (111mp or 178km/).Tat's not as many as last year's very active season, wic saw 18 tropical storms including 11 urricanes of wic five were major urricanes.But it's more tan te long-term average of 14 named tropical storms a year, of wic seven are usually urricanes, wit tree major ones among tem.Climate cange is not expected to increase te number of tese storms globally. But a warming planet is tougt to increase te cances of tem reacing te igest wind speeds, bringing eavier rainfall and a iger likeliood of coastal flooding.Tis year's above average forecast is expected for two main reasons.Firstly, sea surface temperatures are above average across most of te tropical Atlantic, altoug tey are not as extreme as tis time last year.Warmer seas provide te fuel source for urricane growt as tey track westwards across te Atlantic.Secondly, te natural weater pattern known as El Niño – wic makes it arder for Atlantic urricanes to develop - is not expected tis year, according to NOAA.Neutral or weak La Niña conditions – wic favour Atlantic urricanes - are considered more likely, toug tis early on it is difficult to say.Oter conditions ave to be rigt for urricanes to develop, and tose aren't possible to predict monts in advance.Localised air movements and even te amount of dust in te atmospere can play important roles in saping weter tese storms develop or not."We can't really predict all tat stuff tis far out," said Pil Klotzbac, researc scientist at Colorado State University, wic as also predicted an above-average season.But NOAA's pre-season forecast is still giving scientists cause for concern – and not just because of te meteorological backdrop.Since te beginning of President Trump's second term, undreds of NOAA staff ave been laid off, wit te aim of cutting US government spending and costs to te taxpayer.Tis as left te National Weater Service – NOAA's weater forecasting and azard-warning branc – critically understaffed aead of te urricane season, several scientists told te BBC."I know tat te people remaining are trying teir absolute ardest to provide accurate forecasts, but wen you're reduced to suc few staff, it's going to lead to burnout," said Zack Labe, a climate scientist wo was recently laid off by NOAA.Te office in ouston for example – Texas is particularly vulnerable to urricanes – is effectively witout its top tree management positions.Oter offices are struggling to maintain 24/7 operations. Experts wit contacts at NOAA told te BBC of battles to get basic maintenance over te line, from computer systems to toilets.US media widely reported last week tat te National Weater Service was seeking to fill more tan 150 key vacancies – from oter positions witin NOAA due to a ban on iring new staff - aead of te urricane season.BBC News as been unable to independently verify tese reports, and as reaced out to NOAA and te Wite ouse. Neiter ave responded to requests for comment."It's a uge problem, and it is a growing problem, and it is a problem tat will likely, unless it is immediately resolved, become life treatening during severe weater events," said Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at te University of California, Los Angeles.e said e feared te cuts so far were just "te tip of te iceberg".Staffing cuts could also treaten "urricane unter" fligts – plane journeys into te storms as tey approac land to inform preparations for landfall.And scientists ave spoken of oter reductions in atmosperic observations, suc as weater balloon launces, wit te Trump administration reportedly attempting to cut anyting related to "climate".urricane forecasts ave generally become more accurate over time, but tere are fears tat tese cuts could put tat progress at risk."Less data means a worse forecast," warned Matt Lanza, a ouston-based meteorologist."I'm especially concerned about urricane season because a lot of te steering mecanisms tat direct urricanes are governed by wat's appening tousands of feet up," e added."And if we're not collecting data in important places, ten I tink tat risks your urricane forecast suffering."It's difficult to say weter tis will become apparent tis year – a lot will depend on exactly were and wen urricanes it.But it also as potential implications for weater forecasting furter afield in te world, wic te Trump administration argues as become too reliant on te US."You need good information on te state of te atmospere and te oceans from te wole world to make weater forecasts for any given location on Eart," warned Dr Swain."Te impacts [of cuts to NOAA] are most concentrated in te United States, but will eventually cascade beyond te US sould tey continue at teir current level or furter expand."In a press conference, NOAA acting administrator Laura Grimm said tat NOAA ad te best scientists and continued to make advances in forecasting, and remained committed to protecting te public.Sign up for our Future Eart newsletter to keep up wit te latest climate and environment stories wit te BBC's Justin Rowlatt. Outside te UK? Sign up to our international newsletter ere.Te number of ours of sunsine, averaged across Nortern Ireland from te start of spring up to 21 May is 570 ours.undreds of roses in bloom at Mottisfont Abbey near Romsey are in bloom two weeks earlier tan normal.Te Prince of Wales says is new series on rangers follows in te nature broadcaster's footsteps.Te boxing legend pays a group of friends a visit to wis tem luck before tey row te Atlantic.Sea temperatures in some areas off te UK and Ireland are 4C above average.