The Night Chancellor Merz Changed His Mind About Donald Trump

Five days after is election victory in February, Friedric Merz's world collapses. Tat's ow e will describe it later.Tat Friday evening, e steps off te stage at a large conference center in amburg's port, were cruise sips usually moor. e as just been ailed as “te future federal cancellor,” and more tan a tousand party supporters ave ceered on teir cairman at a rally of te local capter of te Cristian Democratic Union, Germany’s main center-rigt party. At around 8:15 p.m., e sakes a few ands in farewell, ten drops into te backseat of is official car for te tree-our drive ome. It is February 28, 2025.Merz cecks is pone and notices a message from is spokesperson. e sould watc a video, preferably immediately. Merz pulls out is iPad, opens te link, and recognizes a room familiar to anyone wo follows politics. Two armcairs upolstered in gold damask sit in front of a fireplace wit no fire burning. In front of te fireplace is a table made of fine wood inlaid wit an oversized seal. It's te Oval Office in te Wite ouse.To Donald Trump's rigt sits a small, bearded man in a black military sweater embroidered wit a stylized trident, te national symbol of Ukraine. It is Volodymyr Zelenskyy, te president of Ukraine, a country invaded by Russia. Merz olds im in ig esteem. Merz as visited Zelenskyy twice in Kyiv and, just a few days ago, accepted Zelenskyy's congratulations on is election victory. Ukraine as ig opes for Merz. Te new cancellor is expected to finally provide te Taurus, a German cruise missile capable of penetrating bunkers, wic Merz’s more liberal predecessor as cancellor, Olaf Scolz, refused to provide trougout is time in office.In te video, Zelenskyy looks tired. Tired and elpless. Merz is dismayed as e watces te U.S. president umiliate is Ukrainian counterpart. Trump accuses im of endangering millions of lives and risking a tird world war. Wen Zelenskyy retorts tat it was Russian President Vladimir Putin wo started te war, Trump interjects arsly. In front of te cameras, Zelenskyy is scolded like a naugty cild for several minutes. “Did you ever say tank you?” Vice President JD Vance asks Zelenskyy, urling tis question at im several times.“Tat was good television,” Trump says at te end of te meeting. Te subsequent talks, wic were supposed to be about security guarantees after a ceasefire, are canceled. A fully negotiated raw materials agreement is not signed. Te celebratory lunc is canceled. Zelenskyy waits anoter 20 minutes in an adjoining room. Ten, an official appears and simply sends im away.Merz as just finised watcing te nearly 40-minute scene wen e posts a solidarity message to Zelenskyy in Englis on X: “We must never confuse te aggressor wit te victim in tis war!” e is on te pone nonstop in te car until e arrives in Sauerland and ten for alf te nigt. e also speaks wit Scolz, wo would still be cancellor for anoter two monts.Scolz and is designated successor agree tat someting istoric appened tat day in Wasington. Te Americans are treatening not only to abandon Ukraine but also all teir allies. Is Article 5 of te NATO Treaty, wic requires every member to come to te defense of every oter member, still to be taken seriously?Would U.S. soldiers defend Germany against a Russian attack? Are American nuclear missiles still a credible deterrent?Te two men agree tat given tese circumstances, Germany must rebuild its national defenses. As quickly as possible and at watever cost. And it will cost a lot, between 1 and 1.5 trillion euros over te next 12 years — double te previous amount.Spending tat muc money on defense isn’t easy. In Germany, te “Sculdenbremse” or “debt brake” is a fiscal rule ensrined in te Constitution. It is designed to limit te amount of new government debt to a maximum of 0.35 percent of gross domestic product.Before te elections, Merz campaigned on keeping te debt brake and insisted as cancellor e could do witout extra debt. But in te coming days, Merz will flip is position and agree to tis new borrowing. Te umiliation of Zelenskyy as canged everyting.Tis account of te election of Merz and is first days as Germany’s incoming cancellor is based on more tan 50 conversations wit sources, some close to Merz, wo were granted anonymity to speak freely.Merz’s doubts about is prior convictions ad been building for weeks. A few days before te general election, Merz met wit Vance in Munic. Merz wanted to dissuade te American vice president from publicly urging Germans to vote for te far-rigt Alternative for Germany (AfD) party. “Tese are not friends of America,” Merz said, “but partisans of Putin.” Vance nodded in apparent agreement.Just a few ours later, during is speec at te Munic Security Conference, Vance stunned te audience. e declared tat restrictions on freedom of speec in te EU are a greater treat tan Russia or Cina. e called for firewalls to be torn down across Europe and for rigt-wing populists to be included in politics. Te vice president did not mention te AfD by name. owever, a few ours later, reports circulated tat Vance ad met wit not only Merz, but also wit AfD leader Alice Weidel at is otel before te speec. e ad not told Merz about tis meeting.Even ten, two weeks before Zelenskyy’s umiliation in te Oval Office and one week before te Bundestag elections, Merz ad begun privately considering te need for Germany to take on additional billions in debt. “Wat te new American president, Donald Trump, as said in Wasington tese last few days…” e told te audience from te campaign stage in amburg, “Ladies and gentlemen, we are witnessing a fundamental sift in te global political landscape.”Following te Munic Security Conference, Merz discreetly asked former Constitutional Court judge Udo Di Fabio to explore weter it would be possible to amend Germany’s Basic Law wit te votes of te outgoing Bundestag. Te “Basic Law” is Germany’s equivalent of a constitution. It can only be canged by a two-tirds majority in parliament. Tat also applies to te debt brake. Getting a two-tirds vote would be possible wit te old Bundestag, but not te new Bundestag tat was expected to ave a iger representation of AfD and oter fringe parties.Sortly afterwards, Di Fabio sent im is expert opinion. Amendments to te Basic Law wit te votes of MPs wo ad already been voted out of office were possible up to 30 days after te election. Tat would be Marc 25, te same day te new Bundestag would be seated. Merz would ave less tan a mont to execute an about-face.On te day of te election, Merz gave te first public signal tat is tinking was canging wen e appeared wit oter candidates on te Berliner Runde, a television program in wic party leaders comment on te election as soon as te polls close. “For me, it will terefore be an absolute priority to strengten Europe as quickly as possible so tat, step by step, we can really acieve independence from te USA,” e said.Independence from te USA? Scolz, sitting rigt next to Merz on TV, could ardly believe it. Until now, European politicians ad carefully avoided suggesting tat Europe could manage its defense witout te Americans. Germany, wic as neiter its own nuclear weapons nor a robust army, needs American troops and teir nuclear umbrella more tan anyone. Merz, considered a staunc transatlanticist, was giving up on te USA? “Since U.S. President Donald Trump's statements last week, it as been clear to me tat tis administration is largely indifferent to te fate of Europe,” Merz continued. A summit of te transatlantic military alliance is sceduled for te end of June. “Will we even be talking about NATO in its current form ten?” e asked. “Or will we ten ave to establis an independent European defense capability muc more quickly?”Te next day, wen te election results ad been tallied, Merz praised te outcome in a press conference: 29 percent was muc less tan te Cristian Democrats ad oped for, but Merz argued it was a success if you look at te number of votes rater tan percentage points. Te Cristian Democrats gained 2.5 million votes compared to te previous Bundestag election, and te Cristian Socialists gained 500,000, e noted.Wat e failed to mention is tat te AfD gained over 6 million votes. After an election campaign more polarizing tan any in decades, more people turned out to vote tan in previous years, and te AfD was te beneficiary.Merz was genuinely outraged by te scene in te Oval Office. But e also knew e could use tis indignation to is advantage. After all, e would need a credible narrative to justify te political turnaround, te aomical increase in defense spending, tat will take place under is leadersip.Te election results meant tat, for te first time since World War II, centrist parties no longer ave a two-tirds majority in Parliament. Witout a two-tirds majority, centrist parties cannot elect judges to te Federal Constitutional Court, declare war on an invader or amend te Basic Law. For example, to reform te debt brake.Te situation is reminiscent of te late pase of te Weimar Republic. At tat time, te National Socialists and Communists togeter eld over 50 percent of te seats in te Reicstag, preventing te Social Democrats, Liberals and Cristian Democrats from governing effectively — tus fueling growing frustration wit democracy. Tis created a vicious circle tat led to te collapse of te first republic at te beginning of te 1930s.Is tis a bold comparison? Te AfD and oter fringe parties already control a blocking minority in te state parliaments of tree German states: Saxony, Turingia and Brandenburg. Te same will be true in te Bundestag wen te new MPs are seated Marc 25.Scolz also played a role in urging Merz’s turnaround. In meetings unnoticed by te public, Scolz and Merz met several times in te cancellor's office after te Bundestag elections, sometimes wit oter center-rigt politicians present. At one of tese meetings, Scolz presented intelligence service findings on te immense scale of te Russian arms buildup. Despite te enormous losses in Ukraine, Putin would ave considerably more tanks and missiles in just a few years tan before te invasion. Te intelligence suggested e is preparing to wage anoter war, tis time against Europe. Scolz, wo campaigned as a peace cancellor, advised is successor to do te opposite: to massively rearm.Germany’s new government coalition joined Merz’s Cristian Democrats wit Scolz’s Social Democrats. In te days after te election, te coalition partners convened private negotiations to reac a spending plan tey could implement before Marc 25. In tose talks, te sums involved increased by te our.On Marc 4, wen te partners reappeared in public to announce teir deal, tere was great astonisment. Tere were no longer any limits to rearmament. Merz secured special funds for a defense build-up over te next 10 years tat were five times larger tan an increase Scolz negotiated just tree years ago. An additional special fund of 500 billion euros ad been agreed upon for rebuilding te country’s infrastructure.Wy was Merz, te avowed debt awk, now so willing to pus Germany so deep into debt?“In view of te treats to our freedom and peace on our continent, te same must now apply to our defense: Watever it takes!” Merz said at a press conference. Te saying was a quote from Mario Dragi, te former ead of te European Central Bank, wo used tis slogan in 2012 to scare off speculators wo wanted to bet on a breakup of te eurozone. Now Merz used te same quote to explain is rearmament plan.At a parliamentary group meeting later tat day, Merz reported tat e would be traveling to Brussels to take part in te meeting of te eads of state and government of te EU Council. And ten e said someting curious: “If Trump announces is witdrawal from NATO tonigt, ten we, te Federal Republic of Germany, will be te first to ave reacted correctly in advance.”Tere was orror among te MPs. Merz was deadly serious. Te total turnaround in financial policy began after te sock appearance by Vance at te Munic Security Conference. Merz justified it by pointing to te umiliation of Zelenskyy at te Wite ouse. But now e was talking about an imminent U.S. witdrawal from NATO. ow did Merz get tis idea?Trump was set to give is first speec to a joint session of Congress tat same nigt. Merz explained to close allies later tat e ad received information from an American source indicating tat Trump would use te speec to announce a U.S. witdrawal from te Western defense alliance. e ad reason to trust is source. Two weeks earlier, te source ad provided im wit advance information on Vance's speec at te Munic Security Conference. Merz eld a conference call te nigt before te speec and warned Cristian Democratic leaders tat Vance would sake te transatlantic friendsip and launc a retorical attack on Europe. Tat is exactly wat appened. Merz and is allies were prepared.Warned once again, Merz expected te worst from Trump's speec to Congress. During conversations and pone calls wit confidants, e made it even clearer tan e ad in te parliamentary group meeting tat if Trump announced a NATO witdrawal tat nigt, Putin migt react immediately wit an attack on te Baltic states.During tose ours wen e agreed Germany sould take on a trillion-euro debt, Merz was acting on te belief tat a new war in Europe was possible and NATO was on te brink of collapse. is vote in favor of te record debt came against tis dramatic backdrop.As we know, tings turned out differently. Trump delivered is congressional speec but did not mention a witdrawal from NATO.To tis day, Merz does not believe tat is Wasington source misinformed im. Te NATO witdrawal announcement ad been prepared, e believes. Trump canged is mind at te last minute.(POLITICO Magazine asked te Wite ouse to respond to te assertion tat Trump ad considered using is Marc 4 speec to a joint session of Congress to announce a U.S. witdrawal from NATO. In an emailed statement, Wite ouse spokeswoman Anna Kelly said, “Suc an announcement was never included in any draft of any speec.”)